Guru Login

PitGuru Softs Blog

First Rule of Trading 101

You are currently viewing the articles from Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

I should sell when everybody wants it and buy when nobody does.

At the beginning of June it seemed that everyone was bullish. Money was flowing into commodities.

Now as we approach month’s end everyone is now bearish and many “weak handed” longs have either liquidated or in some cases, even gotten short.

This is possibly when one would want to buy, especially in those markets where the pressure has been the greatest. I like coffee.  Look what sugar is doing!

A friend sent me this….worth a look

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 18th, 2009

POLITICO
Collin Peterson, 1; Barack Obama, 0

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23874.html

By: Eamon Javers and Victoria McGrane
June 18, 2009 03:31 AM EST

As President Barack Obama began to craft his
massive Wall Street regulatory reform proposal
this year, he ran smack into opposition from an
unlikely Democratic source: guitar-playing,
cigar-chomping Rep. Collin Peterson, who
represents the nation’s No. 1 sugar beet farming
district in Minnesota.

What’s even stranger is that Peterson, the
chairman of the House Agriculture Committee, won
the financial fight and blocked a proposal that
would have destroyed a regulatory agency he
favors.

And with the release of Obama’s scaled-back
proposal Wednesday, Peterson says happily, the
administration seems to be “pretty much back in
line.”

The behind-the-scenes battle reflected the
strange power that agricultural-state lawmakers
had over the crafting of the sweeping Wall Street
reforms. It took place along a long-standing
Washington fault line: congressional prerogative
vs. executive fiat.

At issue was the administration’s proposal to
merge the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The
idea wasn’t merely to do away with one set of
impenetrable Washington acronyms but, rather, to
merge the oversight of securities, like stocks
and bonds, and futures, which are contracts to
buy specific items in the future - hence the name.

Futures have long been associated with the
nation’s agrarian past, because farmers buy and
sell contracts for specific commodities like
corn, wheat or the sugar beets grown in
Peterson’s district in Minnesota.

And even though futures today are just as likely
to be currency or oil contracts as pork bellies,
they’re still regulated by the CFTC and overseen
on Capitol Hill by the Agriculture committees in
the House and Senate.

If Obama’s plan went through, the Agriculture
chairmen would lose their reach into the global
financial industry.

Enter Peterson. A conservative Democrat and
former accountant, the 10-term congressman has
been a staunch defender of agriculture interests
in a House caucus dominated by party liberals.
And this time, he took his case straight to
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Peterson and House Financial Services Committee
Chairman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) joined with other
members of Congress on June 3 for a 7 p.m. dinner
at the Treasury Department. Peterson said
Geithner made another push for the merger.

“We made it pretty clear that we did not think it
was a good idea,” Peterson said. “Barney just
said, ‘Don’t do it.’ So, apparently, they
listened.”

“In a perfect world, I think they would have
liked to do this, but it’s not necessary,”
Peterson said of the Obama administration. “Why
pick fights that are not necessary?”

One of the reasons it would have been such an
enormous fight, say cynics, is the proposal would
mean farm-state members would lose the campaign
contributions that come with their financial
oversight authority.

After all, farmers are not the biggest campaign
contributors to members of the House and Senate
Agriculture committees. Financiers are.

In the 2008 election cycle, reports
OpenSecrets.org, financial, insurance and real
estate interests gave more than $28 million to
members of the Senate Agriculture Committee in
political action committee and individual
contributions. Agribusiness interests were
completely overshadowed, giving slightly more
than $10.6 million.
For Peterson personally, the margins were
reversed, with $542,000 coming from agribusiness
and $112,000 coming from the financial sector in
the 2008 election cycle, OpenSecrets.org said.

It was a similar picture in the House, where
finance, insurance and real estate PACs and
individuals gave more than $8 million to members
of the Agriculture Committee, while the
agribusiness industry could muster only $7
million in contributions.

But members of Congress who resisted the merger
say their gripe wasn’t about authority or
contributions but because there’s no need to
merge agencies in the midst of a crisis.

Asked why it’s a bad idea, Peterson - who has
said campaign contributions played no role in his
position on the issue - cites a previous effort
to reshape the bureaucracy in the midst of a
crisis that ended up with decidedly mixed results.

“I would have two words: Homeland Security,”
Peterson said with a laugh. “In the middle of a
crisis, you shouldn’t shake everything up for no
good reason.” More important than moving boxes on
an org chart, he said, is that the CFTC and the
SEC both adopt similar tough approaches to
regulation. “I think Barney and I were able to
convince the administration that that’s where we
should go.”

But the resistance didn’t come solely from the
House side. Asked the same question, Frank said
simply, “No sensible person would think they had
the votes to do that in the Senate.”

Still, supporters of the plan kept up the heat on
their side. On June 11, Sen. Chuck Schumer
(D-N.Y.) sent a letter to Geithner intended in
part to buck up his resolve to merge the CFTC and
the SEC. “The opportunity we have now to overhaul
our alphabet soup of regulators is once in a
lifetime and must be matched by
once-in-a-lifetime efforts by the administration
and Congress,” Schumer wrote.

But it was too late. A few days later, the
details of the administration’s plans began to
leak out to the media. The CFTC would stay in
place.

Asked by Bloomberg Television’s Al Hunt whether
competing interests stifled consolidation of
regulatory agencies, Obama said Tuesday that he’s
always intended to build off of the existing
foundation, rather than starting with a blank
sheet of paper.

“It didn’t make sense for us to create a whole
new SEC when the SEC already has some top-notch
professionals who do what they do very well,” the
president said.

And on the same day, when asked about
congressional turf fights by CNBC’s John Harwood,
the president was philosophical about what’s
doable in Washington.

“Did, you know, any considerations of sort of
politics play into it?” the president asked
rhetorically. “We want to get this thing passed,
and, you know, we think that speed is important.
We want to do it right. We want to do it
carefully. But we don’t want to tilt at
windmills.”

Obama’s willingness to bow to political reality
suggests that he wants to avoid making enemies of
legislators he’s going to need in coming years.
“It’s a good example of the kind of mistake that
was avoided because of his Capitol Hill
background,” says a financial industry lobbyist.
“A former governor would have taken the executive
approach of thinking the issue could easily be
decided through logic, persuasion and fiat.”

© 2009 Capitol News Company, LLC

Link to my interview with Hard Assets Investor

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 11th, 2009

A couple of clients of mine discovered this and sent me a link. I figured it worthwhile to post here.

Let me know your comments. Video: can be accessed using this link: http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/

Print: http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1610-bauer-coffee-over-150-by-year-end.html?start=1

July/Dec cotton spread

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 11th, 2009

FWIT, I see where the N/Z spread moved out to 500 today!

I put it on at 370 and got out at 455. The move since then is pure spec. The GS roll ends today, volume in the spread has been large almost 6,000 contracts and its only 12:30. While it may go to 550, it may also crash and burn. All things being equal, maybe I got out too early, but nothing wrong with taking a profit.

Heading to my High School Reunion on Friday

You are currently viewing the articles from Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

Will be out on Friday. Returning to the scene of many memories. The Manlius Pebble Hill School near Syracuse. Ever hear of it? Plan on fishing and spending some time with old friends.

As a result I will try to remain somewhat flat on my approach towards trading the softs. So don’t look for any new positions untill next week. 

I’m thinking the US dollar is facing a major decision. Whatever happens there will tend to influence if not dictate developments in the softs.

As a floor broker, you are only as good as your last fill !

You are currently viewing the articles from Tuesday, June 9th, 2009
As a floor broker, you are only as good as your last fill !
I’ve been a floor broker for a long time…a very long time. The past couple of years things have changed dramatically. One thing that hasn’t changed is the way that options are executed in the trading pit. The pit, or I should say various pits, are actual pits. They are circular in shape with the first few outside steps going up, and then subsequent steps leading down into,  well into a pit!
Exchange members congregate in these pits to transact business. Some members, like myself, execute orders for primarily for customers. These orders can be large or small and get directed to me by upstairs brokers, trading desks, or individual clients (both speculative and industry users). For each order I execute I receive a fee. If you’re trading you’re paying this fee, hopefully to me, but if not to someone else, regardless of how you place your orders.
While occasionally paper orders match up in the trading ring, who frequently takes the other side of an order is generally a market maker. A market maker is just that, someone willing to make a market in whatever option, or structured combination of options a custmer is interested in. They provide quotes, a bid and offer price at which they will transact. That bid and offer spread comprises an initial quote and typically will change based upon market movements, competition among market makers and such. Prices are negotiated between the exchange members until an agreed upon transaction price is found.  When that occurs the transaction takes place and gets reported. That is the price you will see on the screen.
Prices are consantly preparing to move, so once a quote is provided, that’ quote is only good for that point in time.

China taking a more proactive stance toward US debt ?

You are currently viewing the articles from Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009

We’ve already been seeing signs that China is not pleased with the massive printing of money here in the US. While it may be more reasonable to repay that debt with inflated dollars, china seems to be growing wise to that. They already cut a deal last month with Brazil to buy their oil witl Yuan, now….this from Bloomberg.

“China’s Yu Tells U.S. Not to Be Complacent About Debt”

By Bloomberg News

June 2 (Bloomberg) — China’s former central bank adviser Yu Yongding
will meet Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today and tell him the
U.S. shouldn’t be complacent about China continuing to buy Treasuries.

“I wish to tell the U.S. government: ‘Don’t be complacent and think
there isn’t any alternative for China to buy your bills and bonds’,” Yu
said in an interview yesterday. “The euro is an alternative. And there
are lots of raw materials we can still buy.”

Yu said he is scheduled to meet Geithner today at the Grand Hyatt Hotel
in Beijing.

Iceberg Orders Frustrate Traders

You are currently viewing the articles from Sunday, May 31st, 2009
Icebergs are receiving a lot of play and thus a lot of attention. I also see where these icebergs are increasingly frustrating traders.
 
For you screen traders…..ever wonder why the market shows only a ten lot offer, and while the market trades at that level that 10 lot keeps reappearing? It may be because an iceberg order is being used. Essentially an iceberg is a hidden order. Like a true iceberg in the ocean you see it, but you only see the portion which appears on the surface. Thus an iceberg order is an order that only shows a portion of itself at one time on the screen, allowing the bulk to be hidden below the surface. 
 
Here is an example. Say you have an order to sell 500 KCN, but you don’t want to tip your hand. You can employ the use of an iceberg. You can set things up so that you can offer 500 at a limit price, but only show little as 10 at a time. (the rule as I understand it allows for 50 to 1 ratio on an iceberg). That way the screen only shows an offer of 10 of your sell order at a time. Then, once those 10 are filled, it will show another 10, and so forth until the entire order is filled. 
 
There are a few additional caveats that need to be known, such as non iceberg orders having precedence over what is not being shown, and that when the screen gets swept it doesn’t fill the iceberg, using instead the seen orders, but I think you get the point. Essentially we are seeing icebergs employed in the soft markets with increasing frequency. In other words, what you see isn’t necessarily what is really there.  And this can work both ways, or even more than that as more and more large traders use iceberg orders.    

Cotton Cures Cancer? │Cotton Based Medical Treatments

You are currently viewing the articles from Friday, May 29th, 2009

For years a standing joke in the cotton pit has been that they discovered cotton cures cancer….well take a look at this and yes, some funds may have actually taken positions as a result…Jurgens

Cotton-Seed Based Drug Shows Promise In Treating Severe Brain Cancer
Main Category: Neurology / Neuroscience
Also Included In: Cancer / Oncology;  Clinical Trials / Drug Trials;  Pharma Industry / Biotech Industry
Article Date: 29 May 2009 - 1:00 PDT

email to a friend    printer friendly    view / write opinions    rate article

Current Article Ratings:

Patient / Public:
Health Professional:
Article Opinions: 0 posts

An experimental drug derived from cottonseed shows promise in treating the recurrence of glioblastoma multiforme, widely considered the most lethal brain cancer, said researchers at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB).

The new results are from a Phase II clinical trial of AT-101, a pill manufactured from a potent compound in cottonseed that overcomes the abnormal growth patterns of tumor cells. This cottonseed-based agent must be properly dosed and monitored by physicians.

In clinical tests, AT-101 halted the cancer’s progression in many of the 56 patients, said John Fiveash, M.D., an associate professor in the UAB Department of Radiation Oncology and the lead researcher on the new study.

Despite undergoing other treatments, including surgery, chemotherapy and radiation, the trial patients’ brain cancer had begun to grow again prior to starting AT-101 treatments. The trial-monitored patients took only AT-101 daily for three out of four weeks. Glioblastomas are more common in adults and are considered fast-growing brain tumors that are very difficult to treat, Fiveash said.

“After getting this drug some of these patients went many months without any new growth in their tumors,” Fiveash said. “We are able to do that with a well-tolerated oral medication, and that is a major benefit.” His initial results will be presented May 30 during the poster discussion of central nervous system tumors at the American Society for Clinical Oncology annual meeting in Orlando, Fla.

Fiveash said the drug would likely work best in combination with radiation and chemotherapy to boost the cancer-fighting properties of those treatments. Also, investigators are trying to learn which patients are most likely to benefit from AT-101.

The AT-101 trial is a partnership that includes Fiveash, the UAB Comprehensive Cancer Center, Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston, Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, The Cleveland Clinic in Ohio, Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit, Emory University in Atlanta, Moffit Cancer Center in Tampa, the University of Pennsylvania in Philadelphia, Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C., and the National Cancer Institute’s Cancer Therapeutics Evaluation Program.

AT 101 is manufactured by Ascenta Therapeutics Inc. based in Malvern, Penn. Multiple preclinical and clinical trials with AT-101 are ongoing in several tumor types, including prostate, lung, B-cell malignancies and other forms of cancer.

Rolling positions

You are currently viewing the articles from Friday, May 29th, 2009

As the month ends positions get moved, or “rolled” from the front month into the next active month. This happens simply because as delivery approaches specs do not wish to get involved (and shouldn’t) with delivery. Because of this feature, when positions are large relative to the overall market, spreads tend to move, sometimes dramatically.

In coffee, where movement in the July/Sep (N/U) spread can often times indicate an overall bullish tone (if the spread narrows) or bearish tone (if the spread widens) may be obscured.  Leaving that indicator moot.

These spreads in Cotton and sugar tend to widen during this period, although as you can see that action has already begun to occur. So look for spreads to be active over the near term.

Daniel Cronin
Energies Guru

What am i doing...

Up Down

Follow Daniel

Frank Lamantia
Financials Guru

What am i doing...

Up Down

Follow Frank

Matt Pierce
Grains Guru

What am i doing...

Up Down

Follow Matt

Daniel Cronin
Metals Guru

What am i doing...

Up Down

Follow Daniel

Jurgens H. Bauer
Softs Guru

What am i doing...

Up Down

Follow Jurgens

All Gurus

What I am doing...

Up Down

Follow All