The USDA has released these figures for the March 31 report:

Concerning the Goldman Sachs bean acreage number released today. Their acreage at 75.6 million is a major problem. Harvested acreage equates to 74.8 million. Yield at 44 (I’m being generous) equates to production at 3.290. Usage from 10/11 was 3.355 billion. Anyone else see a problem here? Even with imports of 15 million, there is a carryout of -60 million for 11/12 alone. If usage does not drop, the margin for production error is less than 10 million. China is currently 6% above last year on net bean imports in 2 months. Anyone want to bet that ends? As I see it, the simple fact is, the SX-CZ spread is toooooo tight at $7.30. I think beans need to work hard to avert a major problem.

MPI

Corn 91.758 million (Informa Jan - 90.9, USDA Outlook - 92, 2010 - 88.2)

Soybeans 75.269 million (Informa Jan - 76.7, USDA Outlook – 78, 2010 – 77.4)

Cotton 13.13 million (Informa Jan - 13.1, USDA Outlook – 13, 2010 – 10.9)

SOMA, Japan — The catastrophe at Japan’s stricken nuclear complex is now worse than Three Mile Island, experts said Tuesday, after the crisis escalated again with a new explosion — this one opening holes in the structure housing a pool with radioactive rods of spent nuclear fuel — and fears that the vessel containing one reactor had been compromised.

An explosion on Monday at Unit 2 within the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant “may have affected the integrity of its primary containment vessel,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday. That means radioactivity could be leaking from the containment vessel.

Moreover, an explosion overnight at Unit 4 opened two large holes in the structure housing rods that had been used to make nuclear fuel.

Japanese officials told the IAEA that the spent fuel storage area had caught fire and that radioactivity was “being released directly into the atmosphere.”

After the fire was extinguished, a Japanese official said the pool might still be boiling, though the reported levels of radiation had dropped dramatically by evening.

Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said low levels of radiation had spread from the complex along Japan’s northeastern coast.

The radiation releases prompted Japan to order 140,000 people to seal themselves indoors and a 30-kilometer (18-mile) no-fly zone was imposed around the Fukushima site Tuesday.

About the only good news Tuesday was the fact that the winds are blowing most of the radioactivity out to sea.

Soon after the latest events, France’s nuclear safety authority ASN said the disaster ranks as a level six on the international scale of one to seven.

Level seven was used only once, for Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986. The 1979 accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania was rated a level five.

‘Catastrophe’
“It is very clear that we are at a level six,” ASN President Andre-Claude Lacoste told a news conference in Paris. “We are clearly in a catastrophe.”

On Three Mile Island, the radiation leak was held inside the containment shell — thick concrete armor around the reactor. The Chernobyl reactor had no shell and was also operational when the disaster struck. The Japanese reactors automatically shut down when the quake hit.

The IAEA said about 150 people had received monitoring for radiation levels and that measures to “decontaminate” 23 of them had been taken.

Clearing up nuclear questions

Though Japanese officials urged calm, Tuesday’s developments fueled a growing panic in Japan and around the world amid widespread uncertainty over what would happen next.

In the worst-case scenario, the reactor’s core would completely melt down, a disaster that would spew large amounts of radioactivity into the atmosphere.

Officials in Tokyo — 150 miles to the south of the plant — said radiation in the capital was 10 times normal by evening but there was no threat to human health.

Closer to the stricken nuclear complex, the streets in the coastal city of Soma were empty as the few residents who remained there heeded the government’s warning to stay indoors.

Officials just south of Fukushima reported up to 100 times the normal levels of radiation Tuesday morning, Kyodo News agency reported. While those figures are worrying if there is prolonged exposure, they are far from fatal.

‘Please do not go outside’
Officials warned there is danger of more leaks and told people living within 19 miles of the Fukushima Dai-ichi complex to stay indoors to avoid exposure that could make people sick.

“Please do not go outside. Please stay indoors. Please close windows and make your homes airtight,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano told residents in the danger zone.

“These are figures that potentially affect health. There is no mistake about that,” he said.

Some 70,000 people had already been evacuated from a 12-mile radius from the Dai-ichi complex. About 140,000 remain in the new warning zone.

Friday’s 9.0-magnitude earthquake and the ensuing tsunami have killed more than 10,000 people.

Desperate efforts
Workers were desperately trying to stabilize the three reactors at Units 1, 2 and 3. Releases of hydrogen gas caused explosions that destroyed the outer structures at each unit. Unit 4, where the pool is, had been under maintenance and was not operating at the time of the quake and tsunami.

Since the quake, engineers have been injecting seawater into the reactors as a last-ditch coolant. Tokyo Electric Power Co., which operates the plant, said it might use helicopters to inject seawater inside the pool area within three days.

Officials said 50 workers were still at the Fukushima site. About 800 other staff were evacuated. The fires and explosions at the reactors have injured 15 workers and military personnel.

The death toll from last week’s earthquake and tsunami jumped as police confirmed the number killed had topped 2,400. Officials say that at least 10,000 people may have died in Miyagi province alone, but those deaths are not confirmed.

Hajime Sato, a government official in Iwate prefecture, one of the hardest-hit, said deliveries of supplies were only 10 percent of what is needed. Body bags and coffins were running so short that the government may turn to foreign funeral homes for help, he said.

Rescuers also found a 70-year-old woman alive four days after the disaster .

Osaka fire department spokesman Yuko Kotani said the woman was found inside her house that was washed away by the tsunami in northeastern Japan’s Iwate prefecture.

Another survivor, described as being in his 20s, was shown on television being pulled from a building further down the coast in the city of Ishimaki after rescue workers heard him calling for help.

The impact of the earthquake and tsunami dragged down stock markets. The benchmark Nikkei 225 stock average plunged for a second day Tuesday , nose-diving more than 10 percent to close at 8,605.15 while the broader Topix lost more than 8 percent.

To lessen the damage, Japan’s central bank made two cash injections totaling $98 billion Tuesday into the money markets after pumping in $184 billion on Monday.

Initial estimates put repair costs in the tens of billions of dollars , costs that would likely add to a massive public debt that, at 200 percent of gross domestic product, is the biggest among industrialized nations.

Source: MSNBC

SAO PAULO, March 10 (Reuters) - Heavy rains in March caused losses to

the soybean crop in Brazil’s No. 5 producing state Mato Grosso do Sul,

although preliminary estimates of losses were still sketchy.

Mato Grosso do Sul received over 300 millimeters (12 inches) in the

first eight days of March, more than double the monthly average of rainfall

that the state gets for all of March, independent weather forecaster Somar

said Thursday.

“The rains in Mato Grosso do Sul have now become much weaker now, but

many low-lying areas that were flooded will take a long time to dry out,”

meteorologist Celso de Oliveira of Somar said.

He said soy had spoiled or sprouted in the pod in many areas. “In some

areas, there is nothing left to do — it’s a complete loss,” he said.

He added that many soy areas in the state are flat, those that are

flooded will require time to dry out and many of the rivers that feed the

area are still rising due to rains at their sources.

“Those in higher areas have already resumed harvesting soy with the

return of sunny weather yesterday,” Oliveira added.

Earlier on Thursday, the government released its official monthly

forecast of the new grains crop, which estimated that Mato Grosso do Sul

would account for 5.4 million tonnes of the country’s record 70.3 million

tonne harvest.

A report from the local Globo News television showed isolated scenes of

flooded fields in Mato Grosso do Sul and said that some areas were

reporting potential losses of up to 40 percent of their crops.

The Mato Grosso do Sul state agricultural secretariat said that it

would release a preliminary estimate of the impact of the rains on state’s

grain crop later on Thursday.

Left-right Senate pair takes aim at ethanol subsidy

By Ben Geman - 03/09/11 11:06 AM ET

Sens. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) and Ben Cardin (D-Md.) are teaming up in a new push to end tax credits that support the domestic ethanol industry. The pair — reviving a left-right push against ethanol — introduced a bill Wednesday that would repeal the 45 cents-per-gallon credit, which refiners and gasoline blenders receive for each gallon of ethanol purchased and mixed into gasoline.”The ethanol tax credit is bad economic policy, bad energy policy and bad environmental policy. The $6 billion we waste every year on corporate welfare should instead stay in taxpayers’ pockets where it can be used to spur innovation, stimulate growth and create jobs,” Coburn said in a statement Wednesday.

Congress renewed the credit through the end of 2011 as part of a broader tax agreement in the lame-duck congressional session in December.Coburn and Cardin, in announcing the bill, pointed to a recent Government Accountability Office report on duplicative federal programs.The study noted other federal drivers of the ethanol market including the Renewable Fuel Standard — which mandates increasing ethanol use — that was expanded in a 2007 law.“The ethanol tax credit and the renewable fuel standard can be duplicative in stimulating domestic production and use of ethanol, and can result in substantial loss of revenue to the Treasury,” GAO found, noting that the tax credit resulted in $5.4 billion in foregone federal revenue last year.

By Shane Romig

Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

BUENOS AIRES (Dow Jones)–Argentina’s tax agency has again raided the offices of leading multinational grain exporting companies, seeking evidence to back up charges that the companies cheated the government out of about 150 million pesos ($38 million) in taxes.

Agents of the national tax agency Afip raided 117 offices of 48 different exporters amid charges that they created shadow companies to hide grain sales, Afip said in a press release Tuesday.

A source close to the matter said that Bunge Ltd. (BG), Cargill Inc., Nidera Handelscompagnie B.V., and Noble Group Ltd. (N21.SG) were involved in the investigation.

Cargill is the leading exporter of grains in Argentina by volume, followed by Bunge, Archer Daniels Midland Corp. (ADM), Louis Dreyfus Commodities, Nidera, Toepfer International GmbH, the Argentine Cooperative Association, Noble Group, Aceitera General Deheza SA, and Oleaginosa Moreno SA.

The companies are accused of creating phantom companies using the names of individuals with limited means and even some who had died, Afip said.

The latest investigation comes amid a broader crackdown by Argentine officials on grain exporters, whom the government accuses of avoiding hundreds of millions of dollars of income taxes.

Agriculture exports were largely responsible for Argentina’s whopping $12.06 billion trade surplus last year, while taxes on farm exports accounted for a significant percentage of the federal government’s tax revenue. Argentina is the world leader in soymeal and soyoil exports, ranks No. 2 in corn exports, and third in soybeans.

Last year, Afip accused four of the country’s 10 largest grain exporters of using shell companies in neighboring Uruguay for accounting scams which left minimal profits on the books of their Argentine units.

In November, Afip said it was investigating Molinos Rio de la Plata SA (MOLI.BA) for possible tax evasion totaling $153 million on grain export profits.

That followed indictments in October against two executives from agricultural giant Cargill, freezing 100 million pesos of assets each for Cargill Argentina Chairman Hector Orlando Marsili and Cargill Uruguay executive Javier Gustavo Fernandez.

Afip said the Cargill executives conspired to defraud the government of millions of pesos in taxes from 2000 to 2003, charges the company denies and has vowed to fight.

Also in 2010, tax inspectors raided the offices of global grains giant Bunge amid accusations that the company had bilked Argentine tax authorities out of ARS1.2 billion in income taxes. Bunge denies the charges and said it will defend itself in court.

Here are the WASDE report figures for February 9, 2011

Good Morning: Yesterday the market saw a wild session with better than expected early strength reversed due to the pounding in crude, cotton and sugar. The latter two was due to reports from ICE stating they will curb long speculation. The report says Cotton is limited to long 300 contracts without proving “need”. No further information as to what justifies need but I’d imagine they are pushing funds out. This is not a good idea…sounds a lot like what China did with their bean oil markets. I thought we had a free market over here? Outside of that impact the trade was a mess with crude chopping wildly as well. Limited fresh fundamental news and limited participation due to Chinese new year left many searching for answers. Bull spreads won on a down day pointing to further bullish momentum in the future. KC held ground against CHI but Minni lost due to strong late covering seen in Chicago. Look for both to widen again next week maintaining the pattern.

In options the market saw two-sided activity with many positions in March closed or rolled forward. Theta is a major issue for March length heading into the weekend. Expiration is on 2/18.

Fundamentals were quiet as the market waits for damage assessments from Australia and the US HRW plains. Argentine weather is wet but no totals are expected until Monday though talk has smaller totals than previously thought with only .25-.75″ The overnight session was choppy with light volume traded. No fresh news offers little to trade on today.

Macros are moderately mixed offering little momentum but with OI gaining every day I have to look at the upside as the risk. A drying forecast in Arg over the next 20 days, a report stating China will need to import 9-11 MMT of corn and declining HRW conditions support bulls. Charts are supportive as well in spite of indicators moving to the top end of the range. Overall heading into the weekend look for a choppy directionless trade with many eyes on Cotton, sugar, crude, the USD and regulatory bodies for talk of curbing speculation.

Beans are called Mixed again to start with the contract high at 1452.50 still within reach if the market gets bulled up today. Corn is called Mixed to start following a failure to get above the contract high at 674.50 yesterday. Indicators are showing signs of weakness at the upper end of the range. Wheat is called Mixed looking to hold ground after yesterday’s new contract high at 872 ¾. Indicators are mixed at the upper end of the range. Meal is called 1-2 dollars cheaper to open with Bean oil looking to open flat.

Matt Pierce is receiving updates to the news article posted earlier. See his Twitter feed for updated information as he receives it.