We are seeing a trading range of 20-30 points in which there is no real excitement on the S&P. The holiday season typically shows low volume and sell offs due to losses taken before year end for tax purposes. A recession typically mean sluggish behavior and no real upward trend. Here is my prediction! People will get their pants all up in a bunch because retail and job numbers will be more positive. Market may go up for a few days. Than everyone will realize that seasonal workers were hired and sales will decrease over the next quarter. Oh, and let’s not forget that people are putting most of these sales on credit cards they cannot pay. Day trading is not easy in this environment and we must maintain a defensive attitude.

Anyone who isn’t happy for Ford is Un-American! Ford made a profit without using tax payer money or as you know it bail outs. This is awesome and we should be proud of them; even though I feel their cars do not ride as nice as Toyota. Is anyone else excited about this?

The recession is supposedly over and everyone is cheery yeahhhhhhhhhhh! Ok, that’s enough excitement and let’s get down to what’s really going on. The S&P was on fire today up 23 points to 1066 on news that GDP is up 3.3%. Buyers came out of hiding today and showed support to the market. Of course I have a big mouth and a few things to get off of my chest. Healthcare is still issue and has divided most of Washington causing healthcare stocks to sea saw. The fact is many small business owners cannot afford to give employees healthcare. This in turn means many employees can’t take a chance with startup companies. Unemployment rates are still rising but may ease the end of next year; especially if the economy keeps growing. Remember, day traders are in it for the long haul and there is no need to hit a home run; a base hit every few days adds up.

The market changed little today as earnings week started. There is talk on whether or not rates will be raised. Experts are talking about giving banks holdings in case of losses so that the bailouts will not affect the consumer as it did this past year. Jeff Skilling of Enron will get his new day in court in which a debate of what is honest services. His lawyer speculates that ethics and fraud are different and that there should be guidance on what the statutes should be. Skilling claims that where he was tried had biased opinions which affected the result of his trial. This guy is a bright, well groomed, egocentric, oh and a complete thieving jerk. People lost their entire pension and savings due to Skilling and his team. Not only should he not get a retrial but the debate on what is right and wrong should not be debated. Posting future earnings in advance is stealing! Posting better numbers to increase your stock is illegal!

Honestly, I am not sure why so many people were surprised by Intel and JP Morgan’s earnings. Chip makers typically do better when college students go back to school. Schools may need new software and students usually buy new notebooks before returning in late August and early September. Also, JP Morgan has been getting the nod from the government ever since Bear Sterns and Lehman got shown the door. They have been given the savior title from Washington and said they were on the road to an outstanding finish. Retail sales were down -1.5% today because of the end of cash for clunkers. The automobile industry put a small dent in the retail number.

Many eyes will be on RIMMs earnings and new home sales over the next few days. The question is can earnings and positive housing numbers really stimulate the stock market? Small resistance to 1100 but after that a clear road to 1200. The only problem is the market rose to fast and a normal pull back may be in order; 3-5% has been the norm in previous instances. We need a strong bullish or bearish market to day trade!

Could the S&P climb to 1100? I think it could get close but may have to pull back. I know many traders that are just sitting and watching this bull rally. Some are calling it a bs rally but it is still moving upward. The fact is industrials, retail sales, and unemployment numbers are getting better. The problem is a recession or almost depression that we experienced takes time to heal. The S&P almost doubling in a year or so does not make me confident; especially when the consumer is still on the fence. Remember a young person typically invests in the markets for the long haul, while older individuals should be in less risky products. Is there even a less risky product out there? Unfortunately, everything is a risk and you should consult a professional when making all decisions.

The technical level we have discussed in the past has been reached; 1056 which does signal confidence and a bullish market. Many times when a target is reached a pull back is in order but this market is different than in the past. The S&P is taking out technical levels and moving higher; much quicker. We are in a V shaped recovery period and may gain steam due to retail investors jumping in. I mentioned this is my daily commentary. The consumer may have been forced to jump in the market because savings rates are very low. People need to reach goals and can’t do this at 1% or less.

The data that has been dripping in over the past few days doesn’t really show strength; although news today showed the recession may end quick with growth probable. Retail sales many times does grow before school starts and around the holidays. Should this news have made us go long today? I don’t think so.  Individual stocks like Target, Kohl’s, Costco, or Wal-Mart had a nice pick me up today on the retail news. Banks may still be in trouble, the deficit is high, foreclosure are growing, and the unemployment rate although better is still in the red. Too many moving parts for the market to go straight up. The market still may be 40-50 points over bought so we have to be smart here.

We are seeing that banks closures will continue to be problematic. From the second quarter of 2009 it has been reported that troubled banks rose from 305 to 416 in the second quarter. Secondly, I have said this before and it may start to be a reality. The consumer is not spending as much and it is affecting major retailers.  If people are over leveraged as is and are nervous we could see hundreds of retailers fold. What does this mean? It means that mini corrections may occur and this could happen for months or even years. No outstanding news or economic data has been announced that demands the market’s bullish behavior.