Crop Progress
Corn is in the early silking stage with only the far south affected. Since “they” stop reporting on emergence I have to assume its 100%…thanks USDA. Conditions continue to imporive with 72% of the crop rated as G/EX, Wow. Compare that to 61% last year. TX, MO,TN and SD garner a bit of bullish sentiment with both IL and IN worth watching. This crop is far too young to get as bearish as the market is getting. With crude at $70.00+ per barrell and front end corn at $3.80, Ethanol is printing money. Look for corn basis to slowly stage a rally as Ethanol eats up old crop reserves.
Winter Wheat continues to follow historical pace concerning harvest. Spring wheat is only 15% headed versus 26 last year and 40 on average. ND is the problem there. Winter wheat conditions remain at 45% G/EX with harvest making this a mute point. Spring wheat conditions showed a 1% decline…they’re still at 76% G/EX. Nothing bullish about that.
Soybean plantings are at 96% with the south convering for the north. IL is only 88% planted versus 96 last year and 99 on average. I know it seems small but with a sub 200 carryout there is no room for error. Emergence is in line iwth historical average. Beans are beginning to bloom in the south. Same rules apply as with corn silking;Too early to matter. Conditions showed 68% G/EX versus 67% last week. There was an overall shift of +2% into excellent. Only LA and MS garner any bullish sentiment and I mean any.