Corn 88.798 Million
Beans 78.098 Million
Wheat 53.827 Million

Corn stocks 7.692 Billion
Bean stocks 1.270 Billion
What stocks 1.352 Billion

BEARISH, BEARISH BEARISH BEARISH

The day ahead of the report has played out as expected with corn and beans chopping on either side of unchanged with wheat marginally higher on small short covering. The report itself will focus on row crop and spring wheat acreage with corn expected at 89 million and beans at 78 million. Any variation from these levels will bring flat price movement.

Volatility has strengthened in front month beans with shorts covered while ck and wk vol are actually weaker in spite of solid buying. It looks like locals are getting out.

Overall a quiet session with the report, month end and quarter end tomorrow.

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)–U.S. lawmakers Thursday unveiled a bill to extend for five years tax credits for ethanol production and a tariff to protect U.S. producers from imports, which are scheduled to expire at the end of this year.
Refiners produced about 10.6 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol in 2009 and the government paid out roughly $4.8 billion in tax credits to the companies that blend ethanol into gasoline.
Reps. Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.) and John Shimkus (R-Ill.) said credits and tariff are still necessary, though, to protect the industry that helps the U.S. lessen its dependence on imported oil.
The bill would extend the 45-cents-per-gallon tax credit for corn-based ethanol and the 54-cents-per-gallon tariff on imported ethanol. The tariff primarily protects U.S. producers from the threat of sugarcane-based ethanol from Brazil, said Chris Thorne, spokesman for Growth Energy, a group representing U.S. ethanol producers.
Bob Stallman, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation said the tax credits and tariff provide the stability needed for the industry to prosper.
And, Stallman said, the government support will “foster expanded markets for corn and other agricultural crops used to make ethanol, increased earnings for farmers and the funneling of more resources into cash-strapped rural economies.”
The House bill unveiled Thursday already has 29 sponsors, including Shimkus and Pomeroy.
But there are also plenty of lawmakers in Congress and farm groups who oppose the ethanol subsidies. Livestock producers who depend on corn to feed their animals have complained over the years that ethanol subsidies make corn more expensive by diverting it to fuel, pushing up the costs of producing meat.

- By Bill Tomson, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-646-0088; bill.tomson@dowjones.com

One of the bigger keys to what’s in store for commodity prices will be the impact that the stronger dollar emits. While most expect pressure to stem from increasing dollar strength, and certainly that is likely in the short run, the longer term possibilities hold that while exports may suffer, these markets are world markets and the overall supply demand issues will dictate. So in those markets where legitimate shortages exist, one can clearly anticipate prices to rise as that commodity becomes more scarce. Identifying those markets will provide opportunity.

My greatest concern as a soft trader is the effect of all the debt being piled on in the US. I’m concerned as a citizen, but beyond that what will transpire if and when the relative “safety” sought, and usually found, by investors among US Treasuries proves to no longer be the safe investment they once were? Already we’ve seen evidence that Warren Buffett’s paper is more attractive. Eventually inflation will result in my thinking, just a question of when….

Soybeans: 78.629
Corn: 88.427

Trade feels bullish corn and slightly bearish beans.

Playing hard and fast in a partisan way with the Senate and House rules in an effort to see that some form of “Obamacare” gets passed is waking up more annd more docile American voters. Good! We need a wake up call.

The borrowing and more borrowing is catching up with the US. The safety of bonds may eventually be at stake. Increases in interest rates, the rumors of China seeking an increase over the weekend was enough to send a shiver through the markets….what mext?

I see a time down the road when a severe drop in bond prices will be inflationary and thus support commodity values. When, not yet, not soon, but down the road. We are in for interesting times ahead.

is

.

Copper has had some significant resistance up at the $3.50 level failing three times there now and once falling all the way down to $2.80.  Even after the Earthquake in Chile (One of the main Copper markets in the world) the base metal, although +20 cents to $3.48 could not break the $3.50 level.  If an 8.8 earthqauke cannot rally this market passed that level than I do not see anything breaking this level just yet.  The MACD and slow stochastics looks to be pointg downward on the daily chart and this means of lower prices to come.

WASDE-480-17                    March 2010

U. S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/

===============================================================================

:         :         :      2009/10  Projections

Item               : 2007/08 : 2008/09 :===============================

:         :   Est.  :    February           March

===============================================================================

:               Million acres

Area                       :

Planted                  :  10.83       9.47          9.15            9.15

Harvested                :  10.49       7.57          7.69            7.69

:

:                   Pounds

Yield per harvested        :

acre                   :    879        813           774             774

:

:             Million 480 pound bales

:

Beginning stocks 2/        :   9.48      10.04          6.34            6.34

Production                 :  19.21      12.82         12.40           12.40

Imports                    :   0.01       0.00          0.01            0.01

Supply, total            :  28.70      22.86         18.74           18.74

Domestic use               :   4.59       3.59          3.40            3.50

Exports                    :  13.65      13.28         12.00           12.00

Use, total               :  18.24      16.86         15.40           15.50

Unaccounted 3/             :   0.41      -0.34          0.04            0.04

Ending stocks              :  10.04       6.34          3.30            3.20

:

Avg. farm price 4/         :   59.3       47.8     59.0-65.0       60.5-65.5

===============================================================================

Note: Reliability calculations at end of report.

1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1.  Totals may

not add due to rounding.  2/ Based on Bureau of Census data.  3/ Reflects the

difference between the previous season’s supply less total use and ending

stocks based on Bureau of Census data.  4/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.

===============================================================================

Looking at the market today we see a downside bias with all macro factors pointing to a flushout of weak length. There is no incentive to own commodities this week with weakness seen on fundamental, technical and macro fronts.

Tomorrow’s WASDE report is looking for an increase in S. American production numbers with Brazilian beans looking over 67 MMT with Argentinian corn looking over 20 MMT. Both will add downside pressure on the market. Only small changes are expected to US consumption numbers with Soy and Corn exports always on the move. Old crop carryout is in question following reports that hte remaining 4% of the corn crop left in the field will be tilled under to help expediate new crop plantings.

Outside of this we need to look at increasing reports of BioFuel mandates and increasing Ethanol mandates as we move through 2010. This is a major factor for Ann Frick, lead analyst for Bache. She is calling for July oilshare to reach 51%…WOW. Currently trading at 45%.

MPI

Money supply is up which is good news for the markets. However the market is trading sideways as unemployment and cost cutting techniques both remain to be issues. The market may have a little more upside but I do not believe job s will start reappearing anytime soon. Also, other countries may start going bankrupt which could create fear. Where the jobs Obama?