Looking at the week ahead, we have month end today offering a measure of caution to bulls but with the new month and Goldman buying on the horizon I do nto look for any pullback. If we do get a pullback look to buy the dip with high expectations of interest heading into Dec and Jan. Retain a bullish bias in corn and wheat versus a mildly bearish stance in corn.

While everyone was enjoying their Thanksgiving Day, there was some big news impacting the financial world as the Dubai Govt has asked investors to extend the maturity of upcoming debt amortizations of two of its state-owned companies, Dubai World and its real estate development arm Nakheel,until 30 May 2010. Subsequently, the Dubai government has authorized Dubai Financial Support Fund to “restructure Dubai World with immediate effect”.  Technically, this does not constitute a sovereign default, since there are no sovereign guarantees on Dubai World and its subsidiaries; in fact, the government issued a decree earlier this year stating that it will not underwrite liabilities of Dubai World. But it was the government rather than the company that announced the stand still over the holioday, and investors can be forgiven for regarding the finances of the emirate and of its wholly-owned subsidiaries as not clearly distinguishable.  This did have an impact on the USD as investors rushed in to the oversold market and took risk off of commodities sending oil lower by -$5.00 at one point and Gold down -$50 respectively.  The market has quickly regained the momentum as the United Arab Emirates’ central bank said it would back the country’s lenders from a possible default by Dubai World, easing concerns of an economic slowdown.  This remains to be seen as either a temporary fix or if there are actual big-time problems with Dubai and it’s liquidity.  For now the markets like the news from the UAE and commodities are rebounding.

Yes, some enjoy receiving faster fills, or cancelation confirmations, but if you have a good floor broker and open communication you should also receive the benefit of better fills on occassion. electronic fills don’t work an order, filling it better than your bid as frequently.

I recently received instructions to buy a straddle at a limit price and managed to fill the first portion far better. When reporting the partcial fill to the customer, (a fund), they said they were violated and should have been filled on the whole order at their limit. I insisted I was not finished filling the order, and that I was simply reporting the portion that I filled at the much better level, yet the customer wanted they entire fill since the price traded was below their bid……They even said that had they placed the order electronically they would have been filled……I tried to explain that I was filling the order signifcantly better, but they didn’t care. Seems they were more interested in convenience rather than the better price……Welcome to the world of electronic trading….

The WTI spreads have gotten considerably weaker the last few trading days losing more than -50 cents in the Jan/Feb contract going from -80 to -130.  This is a sign of traders liquidating their Jan positions and buying up the back end of the curve.  The Jan Arb (Jan WTI vs Jan Brent) has also gotten weaker going from flat yesterday to -70 today.  Yet another sign that Crude wants to test $75.

Gold is reaching $1,180/oz on the Comex exchange as the USD keeps losing steam against other major currencies.  The Euro/USD is reaching that all amiportant triple top of $1.5050 so it will be interesting to see what Gold will do when the Dollar gets there again.

Heading into the holiday I expect to see markets chop around with a slightly negative trend for corn as harvest continues to pressure the gulf. We ahve seen bean movemnt flater recently helping babis pop hoping to curtail massive Chinese buying. The reason we need to curtail is we are currently running at 200% of last year’s pace of both sales and shipments. We ahve 72% of the total crop sold at this point…2 months into the crop year.

I will be out the rest of the week returning on Tuesday to hit December hard with relationships the focus of the trade.

The Gold market has mad another new high, this time at $1,133.5 as the USD continues to weaken.  The Euro/USD is looking to head to $1.50 and the Gold market is following suit, rallying right along with.  $1,150 seems like the next logical target, but it is hard to pick a number up there seeing as how the market has never been up there before.

Oil broke the huge support of $76.50 Friday and traded down as low as $75.60.  There is still another big support level at $75.00 and this looks to be a good base for the Crude market right now as long as the USD continues to weaken.

Goldman on Tuesday announced their new weighting for the 2010 calendar year. We are looking at heavy gains in corn and beans, no change in wheat with Crude and Copper both losing. This will pull more money into our markets as we approach year end offering upside catalyst post harvest.

The market is expecting an increase of around 200,000+ jobs lost which will increase the unemployment rate to 9.9%.  Frankly I dont know how oil is above $80 if the market has almost double digit unemployment but it still remains to be seen.  Watch the number coming out Friday Nov 6th as this will be a tell tale sign of things to come.