On Friday morning we get another taste of the USDA and their screwed up expectations for the US crop. Listening to farmers and silo operators I have to look for, at least, a 163 yield for corn with bean yield reaching above 43. These are bigger than the current USDA number from SEP but smaller than some of the MASSIVE provate estimates we have seen. Subscribers can see all estimates on the morning wire. This report will set the tone for the following few weeks with only harvest and S. American planting affecting the fundametnal side. The macro side, especially the USD will have a major impact heading into the winter months.

Crude trading higher in the last few days after bouncing off the major support of $65.05.  Last week we saw horrible economic data with consumer confidence and non-farm payrolls  falling way below expectations.  Even still, Crude traded higher and now is poised to test $71.30.  USD has also seen selling pressure the last few days trading lower against other major currencies.

Gold up +15 today to over $1,018 as Bank Of America comes out raising their price target in the precious metal to $1,500.  Silver also rallying on the back of this news as the USD weakens.  I am still seeing more buying pressure in todays overnight trade and Gold is now above $1,022.  This market looks like it wants to retest the highs.

Returned from a week away in Martha’s Vineyard with my family. Always a plus to get away especially on the Vineyard, my favorite place.

Like the look of coffee. Think KCZ has a good shot at 134 this week and yet with Novy (X) serial option expry due Friday, mkt needs to prove itself able to leave 130 level.  I think it can and will and we may see a go at 138-140, but only if we can close KCZ above 134.

The economy scares me. On Friday, the Labor Department reported that nonfarm payrolls decreased by 263,000 in September. That kind of news, combined with the way politicians (who cannot be trusted) want to legislate our way out of it, make me nervous. 

Anyway, here’s a link to a graph worth a look. http://www.chartoftheday.com/20091002.htm#