The recession is supposedly over and everyone is cheery yeahhhhhhhhhhh! Ok, that’s enough excitement and let’s get down to what’s really going on. The S&P was on fire today up 23 points to 1066 on news that GDP is up 3.3%. Buyers came out of hiding today and showed support to the market. Of course I have a big mouth and a few things to get off of my chest. Healthcare is still issue and has divided most of Washington causing healthcare stocks to sea saw. The fact is many small business owners cannot afford to give employees healthcare. This in turn means many employees can’t take a chance with startup companies. Unemployment rates are still rising but may ease the end of next year; especially if the economy keeps growing. Remember, day traders are in it for the long haul and there is no need to hit a home run; a base hit every few days adds up.

Looking at the nearterm forecast for the central part of the US I see a major storm system moving across the country extending from N. TX straight through to ND. This will cripple any weekend harvest farmers were hoping for pointing to a small pop in the market heading into the weekend. Looking a bit deferred we see a completely clear forecast through Nov 7th once this system moves through. This is a two sided coin. The market should have a small upside bias heading into the weekend, helped by macros, but smart traders are going to look to sell into the pop tomorrow near the close looking for a break early next week…if the forecast holds. Selling volatility up here looks like a great option but it can and will bite back if rain continues to fall.

I don’t know if you caught it, but Congress passed their annual raises. This is scheduled to be accomplished without receiving attentio grabing headlines, so they do it in the middle of the night as we head into a weekend. Wouldn’t it be sweet to vote iyourself a pay increase? 

Congress avoids public awareness of their pay increases so they can prevent receiving the anger of the voters. They know that the public has been angered over the pay packages that many of those businesses receiving TARP are paying their upper management, but why is nobody angry about the pay increase for Congress.? Probably because its done during the cover of darkness……

BTW, If there is no inflation in the system, as stated by the government, (re. COLA and Social Security this year), why is the Congress getting a raise?  Shouldn’t they be set to the same standards that they are trying to set for others?  

While we are at that, why aren’t our dear elected officials paid for their performance?  The country is in deficit, therefore they should certainly not get a raise. Perhaps they should pay for the right to be in Congress.

Many traders in the financial community are paid a fixed salary, and then paid a bonus  based upon their performance.  Our elected officials have run our country into the ground and nobody is squawking about it. 

Well, I say, “Throw the bums out!” 

The fox is watching the hen house; which is a formula for disaster.  We, the citizens of the USA, are suffering like serfs. Our elected officials treat themselves as if they are a ruling class! It is time for a change,.

I would welcome a change that would have our elected officials live as we do, on social security and retirement, they shouldn’t have a seperate plan. Congressional representatives should be compelled to live with the same health insurance system that they’re trying to force upon us. If we do that, then Congress will fix the system.  We are just perpetuating bad behavior by not forcing Congress to live as we have to live.

And that’s my rant, now back to football….Jurgens

The Euro/USD broke the $1.50 mark this week, but did not really affect the price of Gold and Silver as they have stayed in the range of $1,045-$1,069 and $17.25-$18.00 respectively.   We will see how this affects the price of these precious metals going forward.  Copper however has made a new high as this just broke the $3.00 level on rallying equities.

I will be headed to the Borgata tomorrow for a fun weekend of Poker.  Playing some No Limit Hold for me is a nice way to relax and get away from things for a little while.

And the rally continues, and the beat goes on.  Crude Oil blew passed the big resistance of $75 when banks like JP MOrgan Goldman Sachs, and Tech Giants Apple and Google crushed earnings sending Crude to $80.  Products led the charge as Gasoline and Heating Oil posted huge draws in inventory as Heat and Gas Crakcs came off of their lows.  The market is now in the range of $75-$80 and looks like it doesn’t want to stop going higher.  The Euro/USD broke the $1.50 mark for a much weaker Dollar helping Crude Rally to new highs.  There just seems like no relief for the USD as it gets pummelled by every other major currency.

The dollar moves up, commodities go down. The dollar weakens, commodity prices move up. This inverse relationship is obvious as items priced in dollars become more attractive when the dollar softens. But it is concerning when the relationship dictates price movement to the degree that it seems to these days.

Remember when the dollar was strong? Some commodities still managed to rally back then, because they did it on their own merits. Can markets focus upon their own fundamentals, or are they subject to following the flow of investor money as it chases the dollar?

The market changed little today as earnings week started. There is talk on whether or not rates will be raised. Experts are talking about giving banks holdings in case of losses so that the bailouts will not affect the consumer as it did this past year. Jeff Skilling of Enron will get his new day in court in which a debate of what is honest services. His lawyer speculates that ethics and fraud are different and that there should be guidance on what the statutes should be. Skilling claims that where he was tried had biased opinions which affected the result of his trial. This guy is a bright, well groomed, egocentric, oh and a complete thieving jerk. People lost their entire pension and savings due to Skilling and his team. Not only should he not get a retrial but the debate on what is right and wrong should not be debated. Posting future earnings in advance is stealing! Posting better numbers to increase your stock is illegal!

Honestly, I am not sure why so many people were surprised by Intel and JP Morgan’s earnings. Chip makers typically do better when college students go back to school. Schools may need new software and students usually buy new notebooks before returning in late August and early September. Also, JP Morgan has been getting the nod from the government ever since Bear Sterns and Lehman got shown the door. They have been given the savior title from Washington and said they were on the road to an outstanding finish. Retail sales were down -1.5% today because of the end of cash for clunkers. The automobile industry put a small dent in the retail number.

We are seeing the rush into Gold and Silver as the USD continues to weaken again.  It seems like this is a broken record but right now it doesn’t look like anything can stop this freight train at the moment.  Keep an eye on the USD this week as we get earnings announcements from major companies that could affect the USD and the precious metals.

Huge week ahead of us as we have big time earnings coming out from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. along with Google Inc., Southwest Airlines Co., Intel Corp., IBM Corp., General Electric Co., and Johnson & Johnson.  If these companies can beat both the bottom and top lines Crude can rally to test the huge resistance of $75.  Big week ahead, keep your eyes open for these earnings announcements.