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Archive for June, 2009

What took so long? │ New Talks on Regulations

You are currently viewing the articles from Wednesday, June 17th, 2009

Finally, the government talks about regulations! Obama want to implement new standards. No kidding! Stabilizing the markets and protecting consumers should have been accomplished in the same breath. We are playing the waves but those in the market for the long term need safety. People lost millions because they did not have FDIC on bank accounts. This is the first thing you look at when you open an an account.

Solid start to the week

You are currently viewing the articles from Tuesday, June 16th, 2009

The market finally fell apart yesterday with only a small correction today on “Turnaround” Tuesday.

The fundamental front looks to cap any rally wiht crop progress showing great improvments across the entire country. There is no early concern with corn ratings at 70% G/EX and beans at 66%.

Keep an eye on July corn option for opportunities with this the most heavily traded pit yesterday. Good action seen selling the CN 400p @ 7-7 1/2-cents. This is a ballsy move with 9 trading remaining until expiration.

What a great weekend! Now back to business….

You are currently viewing the articles from Monday, June 15th, 2009

I traveled back to Syracuse this weekend. The weather was glorious. I managed to see many old friends and spend time cruising the shores of Lake Ontario in a 1965 Lyman. Sackett’s Harbor and Henderson. What a treat. Lake was glass…..

Now as for these markets…all are lower and under pressure. The dollar is up. There were no surprises from the cotton option expry, although coffee did see 10 of the 130 put’s abandoned? July Sugar options go off this afternoon.

Must lean negative and forget about bottom picking. Why? Well can you give me any good reason to want to buy? Markets are not oversold and looking for a turnaround here just doesn’t make sense.

For now holding no positions, having covered everything before leaving on Thursday. Standing aside, looking for a shot to establish shorts is likely.

Rough Stretch for Traders

You are currently viewing the articles from Friday, June 12th, 2009

Every trader has a bad streak where they see a market one way no matter what the signals and technials tell him. Many on the floor right now have tried to catch falling daggers in the past couple of weeks feeling the bull market is real only to find out a bull market can exist with violent downside moves. The market is due for a violent downside move so with crude and the Euro getting hammered early watch out for mass liquidation heading into the weekend acros the Agriculture sector.

Link to my interview with Hard Assets Investor

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 11th, 2009

A couple of clients of mine discovered this and sent me a link. I figured it worthwhile to post here.

Let me know your comments. Video: can be accessed using this link: http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/

Print: http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/features-and-interviews/1610-bauer-coffee-over-150-by-year-end.html?start=1

Soy meal and beans

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 11th, 2009

here is a major squeeze going on in both meal and beans right now. SN/SX is trading at 192 marking a 25-cent gain on the day. SMN is limit higher with the SMN/SMZ spread moving beyonf a 90-dollar inverse. Commercial entities have been caught with their pants down in July and are runningin to cover shorts. This feels like a blow off top but watch out for strength in crude to stupport our markets.

July/Dec cotton spread

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 11th, 2009

FWIT, I see where the N/Z spread moved out to 500 today!

I put it on at 370 and got out at 455. The move since then is pure spec. The GS roll ends today, volume in the spread has been large almost 6,000 contracts and its only 12:30. While it may go to 550, it may also crash and burn. All things being equal, maybe I got out too early, but nothing wrong with taking a profit.

The mess continues │ SN/SX Spead Widens

You are currently viewing the articles from Thursday, June 11th, 2009

The recent markets have been a mess to say the least. heading into delivery the SN/SX spread is ripping wider in spite of negative export sales. This is strictly a result of the weak US dollar and strong crude markets. Flatprice contiues to rise but we are butting up against technical resistance with SX running out of gas as we appraoch 1086. In corn the upside fundamental catalyst everyone wanted on yesterday’s WASDE report did not materialize. The market looks to recover slightly today but the bears are now in control for the immediate future. In wheat you have to look at intermarket spreads with WZ-CZ very active with interest growing from the long side for wheat at current levels. Subscribers can see how I feel about this spread.

Overall the markets feel a bit overbought with techncials pointing to a continued downside move with beans the most vulnerable to pressure due to relative recent price moves.

 

Matthew Pierce

Heading to my High School Reunion on Friday

You are currently viewing the articles from Wednesday, June 10th, 2009

Will be out on Friday. Returning to the scene of many memories. The Manlius Pebble Hill School near Syracuse. Ever hear of it? Plan on fishing and spending some time with old friends.

As a result I will try to remain somewhat flat on my approach towards trading the softs. So don’t look for any new positions untill next week. 

I’m thinking the US dollar is facing a major decision. Whatever happens there will tend to influence if not dictate developments in the softs.

As a floor broker, you are only as good as your last fill !

You are currently viewing the articles from Tuesday, June 9th, 2009
As a floor broker, you are only as good as your last fill !
I’ve been a floor broker for a long time…a very long time. The past couple of years things have changed dramatically. One thing that hasn’t changed is the way that options are executed in the trading pit. The pit, or I should say various pits, are actual pits. They are circular in shape with the first few outside steps going up, and then subsequent steps leading down into,  well into a pit!
Exchange members congregate in these pits to transact business. Some members, like myself, execute orders for primarily for customers. These orders can be large or small and get directed to me by upstairs brokers, trading desks, or individual clients (both speculative and industry users). For each order I execute I receive a fee. If you’re trading you’re paying this fee, hopefully to me, but if not to someone else, regardless of how you place your orders.
While occasionally paper orders match up in the trading ring, who frequently takes the other side of an order is generally a market maker. A market maker is just that, someone willing to make a market in whatever option, or structured combination of options a custmer is interested in. They provide quotes, a bid and offer price at which they will transact. That bid and offer spread comprises an initial quote and typically will change based upon market movements, competition among market makers and such. Prices are negotiated between the exchange members until an agreed upon transaction price is found.  When that occurs the transaction takes place and gets reported. That is the price you will see on the screen.
Prices are consantly preparing to move, so once a quote is provided, that’ quote is only good for that point in time.

Daniel Cronin
Energies Guru

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Matt Pierce
Grains Guru

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Metals Guru

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Jurgens H. Bauer
Softs Guru

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