Oil had a disaster of a day yesterday as Crude dropped $4 or 8% as the dollar continued to rally and the DJIA lost some 280 points from its 2 1/2 month high.  More selling pressure in the overnight session as May is down -44 cents and June is down -31 cents.  Keep in mind that May goes off the board today and June will have support @ the $47 level which May held twice in the  last 3 weeks.  It was interesting to see how right when Crude broke that $50 resistance level on March 19th I saw many articles coming out about crude reaching the $65-70 range by year end.  -Daniel Cronin, Energies Guru

It was only a matter of time before the traders took their profits and headed for the exit. The leading indicators and financials once again slapped us in the face. But this is normal and a part of trading; especially in a recession. More earnings coming, stress test criteria form the government, and stress test results coming over the next 2 weeks. Question for you savvy individuals. How can the equation the government used to make this test adjust or equate for housing and or jobs? Answer, I don’t think they can! There will be open ended valuable information missed by these tests. You heard it here first.

There has been plenty of spread movement in beans/corn and wheat corn today. New crop beans have lost heavily to corn on profit taking with wheat losing to corn as well. I favor buying the bean dip over wheat due to long term potential and old crop strength (relative). Subscribers can see the ideas.

Looking forward to the week ahead we need to focus on weather and equities. Banks will set the tone with further rains across across the midwest adding to any upside momentum the market tries. Friday’s setback was profit taking plain and simple. Unless we get a big shock, I expect markets to start higher waiting for further information from China with no major fundamental information expected.

One word of caution, Monday’s crop progres report (3PM CST) should show corn falling behind due to rains all over the midwest. Anyone who wants to get fired up about this should remember that the south is neve a concern when harvest comes, only the northern states are a concern. Plainly put, this is too early to get excited about delayed plantings. With today’s technology we can plant faster than any early concerns should arise.

Overall look for beans to lead any upside move with wheat moving higher while corn remains the weak leg.

Matthew M. Pierce

Is anybody else tired of being left in the dark? Why do we have to wait for the results of the banking industries stress test? it seems like they are trying to get their stories straight so the market doesn’t tank when they speak. Consumers need honesty, timeliness, and directness. Also, we need to stop spending money. The inflation backlash that we will have to deal with could be devastating.

Gold dropping like a rock today some $17  to the $870 support area as the DJIA closes above 8,100 and the dollar gains against the Euro.  If Gold breaks this $870 mark prices will plummet another $30   so watch this level very carefully.  I am beginning to believe in the DJIA rally.  We havent seen it give back any gains in the last month and a half.

Lets tax the rich? Are you kidding me. What are we teaching our children? Get a good education, work hard, get a great job oh and then we are going to tax you for your efforts because most people are lazy. We all need to wake up and look at where the problems of the country stem from. First off the policing of markets which should have been handled by the government is horrible. It is their fault along with Wall Street. Why doesn’t the government make people get jobs that have been living off the system for years? Why doesn’t the government stop people from having 18 kids that can’t afford them? I may seem a little harsh but where do these people think the money is coming from. People like you and I who work hard. There has to be a better way. The people who make 200k or more are the people that buy stocks, cars, boats, and other luxury items. This will slow down the market even worse.

Last night we saw GS had great earnings and the markets rallied rather well. Retail sales but a little sting in that momentum this morning. Some may say that PPI was not that bad and that the worst is over. Unfortunately, I am not one of those guys. Bad news is bad news until you show me good news. Let’s talk about the TARP funds which I thought was another way to slap consumers in the face. Now the banks that have taken these funds are pisd? Who cares if they are mad! They didn’t care if you and I were upset. They pay 5% to the government on money borrowed so they are paying it back faster. It was to stay afloat not live on. Consolidation of banks and the financial industry believe it or not means more competition. This will eventually get us better rates and more services that we need. Sorry for my rant. I just can’t stand when the little guy (us) has to pay for other peoples mistakes. So I am glad the banks are getting charged a vig.

Monday was a lackluster day as a slight recovery off some overnight lows offered bulls strong technical confirmation of what could have been considered a questionable Thursday pre-holiday rally.  This market is showing some signs of momentum failure, but today was actually a pretty strong move as a congestion near the highs is likely setting up a strong fresh high this week.  I continue to try an pick up value in overnight dips on the mini-S&P by buying early and placing a stop below the overnight low.  This is a technique that I feel has worked well in recent action.  For specific entry, stop and profit target point sign up for the PitGuru premium service for our trade recs. 

The euro held what could eventually be considered a key double bottom support.  This critical area will be a focal point for a potential upcoming trade alert should this price point get tested again.  Remember, the euro is riding a wave after a major spike that occured after the recent  Fed meeting.  The Fed showed their intention to dilute the dollar through treasury buy-backs.  This is long term bearish the dollar, but the question becomes is it the deal breaker?  Does the world really care about the U.S. printing money to cover some of its debts?  The answer is yes.  The dollar only has one bailout.  If the ECB or UK do similar buybacks this will diminish the effects of the Fed’s recent move as it becomes more of a global dilution rather than a U.S. one.  The market likely realizes this and the ebb and flow of the euro should be based on the expectation of the market that the European powers that be will take similar action. 

Tomorrow there should be significantly more action as we see some critical reports coming out like the PPI and Retail Sales.  I like a positive surprise on retail sales as expectations are dreadfully low and some recent March economic stats suggested a shift on some spending habits.  This may offer the boost to 870 the S&P needs to regain momentum.  - Financials PitGuru, Frank LaMantia

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

Euro Currency Daily